Looking back and subsequently looking forward as well

At 44-44 at the All-Star Break, the Phillies define mediocre. They’re inconsistent; they had that period where they swept Atlanta and the Mets in their stadiums, and they’ve also looked bad against bad teams. They’ve had some rough injuries, some rough breaks and some great highlights. There’s reason for pessimism, and I’ll get into that, but consider this: last year, the Phillies were 7 games under .500 and 12 games behind the Mets. This year, they’re at .500 and only 4.5 games back. There’s less ground to make up, and with the Phillies being a traditionally strong second half team, there’s still a chance they make the playoffs.

Here are my ratings for the first half, and predictions for the second half. I’ll give a player a letter grade, that’s arbitrarily based on how they’re doing, and what their expectations are. Position players are sorted by number of plate appearances, and pitchers are sorted by innings pitched.

SS Jimmy Rollins

B+

.286/.329/.518 71 R 16 HR 53 RBI 15/19 stealing

Projection: .282/.330/.505 130 R 25 HR 95 RBI 28/34 stealing

After declaring the Phillies to be the team to beat, Rollins has done his part to back that up. He’s hitting the ball with more pop than ever before, and with the exception of a few lapses, he’s played solid defense. He’s making consistent contact, but his plate approach from the spring in which he was more patient and took some walks is gone. He’s also not as efficient stealing bases as he has been in year’s past.

Chase Utley

A+

.325/.401/.571 64 R 15 HR 68 RBI 6/7 stealing

Projection: .320/.390/.560 120 R 30 HR 120 RBI 11/13 stealing

Every time you think this guy stops growing, he finds a way to get a little better. Utley is going to shatter career highs in almost every offensive statistic, and he’s playing great defense this year to boot. He’s on pace to break the previous ML record for doubles, but Magglio Ordonez is also on pace to do it, but he’s going to hit more than Utley. He’s going to see a big of a dip in his rates, but it’s tough for anyone to keep up what he did. He’s definitely an MVP candidate if the Phillies are in the race.

Shane Victorino

B+

.277/.346/.429 55 R 11 HR 37 RBI 27/29 stealing

Projection: .275/.345/.440 95 R 20 HR 80 RBI 51/55 stealing

Shane gets a higher grade because he’s doing better than anyone anticipated. When he was hitting at the top of the lineup, you would’ve liked to see him get on base more, but if he’s going to keep hitting 5^th and 6^th in the lineup, his power is going to be a useful tool. Davey Lopes has done a great teaching Victorino how to become a better base runner and stealer, and his athletic ability is really paying off.

Aaron Rowand

A-

.310/.385/.478 52 R 11 HR 43 RBI 5/6 stealing

Projection: .310/.380/.465 110 R 23 HR 90 RBI 9/11 stealing

In his contract year, Aaron Rowand brought his bat back to the table. He was hitting very well before his injury last year, so fans are left wondering what could’ve been. This year, healthy, Rowand’s having probably his second best season, only behind his breakout 2004 campaign. He comes from the frustrating Eric Byrnes school of defense, but his highlight catches are still fun to watch.

Ryan Howard

B

.256/.377/.555 39 R 21 HR 67 RBI 0/0 stealing, thankfully

Projection: .275/.400/.585 90 R 43 HR 130 RBI 0/0 stealing

Not exactly an outstanding follow up to a 2006 MVP season, but leg injuries have dampened Howard’s effectiveness. He’s been crushing the ball since coming off the DL, and that’s why he’s the first guy here that’ll see a significant jump in his numbers. He’s still struggling against breaking balls thrown from lefty pitchers, and hopefully he starts seeing the ball better soon.

Pat Burrell

D-

.215/.378/.408 32 R 11 HR 37 RBI 0/0 stealing

Projection: .225/.385/.430 55 R 20 HR 75 RBI 0/0 stealing

Ah, Pat. If his at bats made you cringe last year, you probably vomit in the 2007 season. He’s obviously having a rough year. His strike zone judgment is questionable, and he has a tough time making contact sometimes. He’s got a lot of power. He works hard. He just can’t do it right now. It’s hard to see him play like this because he’s just as frustrated as everyone else, and Pat really is a nice guy. His contract is an abortion and you expect your highest paid player to do more than this.

Carlos Ruiz

B-

.272/.329/.401 24 R 3 HR 29 RBI 2/3 stealing

Projection.275/.335/.420 50 R 5 HR 60 RBI 2/3 stealing

Ruiz has been a streaky hitter, but a pleasant surprise nonetheless. He stole back the catching job that should’ve rightfully been his to begin with, and he’s been a decent bat at the bottom of the lineup and decent behind the plate. His plate discipline could stand to be a bit better, and that would lead to him hitting some more pitches hard, but after the production we’ve been getting from C in recent years, I’ll take it.

Wes Helms

D

.267/.327/.382 14 R 3 HR 24 RBI 0/0 stealing

Projection: .275/.335/.420 35 R 13 HR 60 RBI 0/1 stealing

They say Wes has always been a second half player, but it would’ve been nice for him to show a pulse in the first 80 games. It took 150 some ABs for his first home run, and from a guy who signed a contract with the expectance of him to hit for power, he hasn’t done it. He should be a better player from here on out and earn some more starts at third, but he’s been a disappointment so far.

Abraham Nunez

C-

.263/.317/.323 18 R 0 HR 13 RBI 1/1 stealing

Projection: .260/.315/.325 30 R 1 HR 20 RBI 1/2 stealing

He hasn’t been as bad as last year, but that’s like saying James Thrash didn’t drop as many passes as last year. At one point this season, he was hitting close to .300, but that lasted as long as Bill Barber’s tenure as coach of the Flyers. I guess his defense as good, but the defense doesn’t even have to be on the field when he bats. That’s not good. I’m not even sure why I’m projecting him to hit a home run. Maybe it’ll happen in the 10,000 loss.

Greg Dobbs

B

.288/.320/.529 25 R 7 HR 34 RBI 1/1 stealing

Projection: .290/.330/.520 15 HR 72 RBI 2/2 stealing

The Natural has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball. After being claimed off waivers from Seattle over the winter, Dobbs hit the cover off the ball in Clearwater and earned a roster spot. Because of other players’ struggles, he started getting more and more at bats, and now he’s showing what he can do. His fielding leaves something to be desired, but he’s a good bat to have in the lineup.

Rod Barajas

F

.213/.341/.389 15 R 4 HR 9 RBI 0/1 stealing (why was he attempting a steal?)

Projection: .211/.340/.387 16 R 4 HR 9 RBI 0/1 stealing

That’s right. I’m calling the DFA. He was supposed to provide the vaunted pop at the bottom of the lineup. He hasn’t. He was supposed to be a solid defensive catcher. He’s not. He was supposed to be a veteran leader. Strike three, you’re out, like many of your at bats. It’s a shame that fans have to deal with this clown and his tomfoolery behind the plate. I don’t know how a catcher that’s afraid to block the plate lasted more than two weeks in the majors.

Jayson Werth

C-

.235/.333/.353 13 R 3 HR 10 RBI 0/1 stealing

Projection: .250/.345/.365 20 R 5 HR 18 RBI 1/2 stealing

It’s tough to evaluate Jayson because he came off a serious injury and he’s landed back on the DL with the same injury in the past couple weeks. He’s been okay as a pinch hitter and a decent spot starter in the OF. He had a rough time in the field in the Florida series, but he’s been better as of late. Hopefully he can come back healthy and contribute off the bench some more.

Michael Bourn

C+

.256/.337/.329 17 R 0 HR 5 RBI 13/13 stealing

Projection: .265/.350/.350 40 R 1 HR 20 RBI 30/31 stealing

Hopefully Michael can keep getting some more playing time. After a strong spring, he was the last player on the 25 man roster when the team came up north. His outstanding speed is an annoyance to teams on the bases, and he’s an incredible in the outfield. You can’t teach the good eye he has, and whenever he moves up a level, he’s always been able to adjust. There’s a possibility of a trade.

Chris Coste

B

.364/.391/.500 2 R 1 HR 1 RBI 0/0 stealing

Projection: .315/.350/.490 20 R 4 HR 25 RBI 0/0 stealing

Everyone’s favorite utility player should be back for good this season. Each time he was called up, he showed the same bat that made him a fan favorite last year. He’s not as bad behind the plate as a lot of people want to have you believe, and we all know he can hit the ball. The rest of the team loves the guy and he can play, so there’s no reason for him to be in Ottawa or Reading anymore.

Cole Hamels

A

10-4 3.72 ERA 118.2 IP 1.21 WHIP 124 K 29 BB

Projection: 17-8 3.80 ERA 210 IP 1.22 WHIP 216 K 50 BB

There has been no sophomore slump for this All-Star. Hamels dominated right out of the chute in 2007, and despite some June progress, he’s given Phillies fans hope for the next decade. His command has been better this season, and his strikeouts are up. His one problem this year has been allowing the long ball, especially against right handed bats. Sometimes his change can get elevated, and it’s an easy pitch to hit. He’ll learn. He could have a cabinet full of Cy Youngs before his career is over.

Jamie Moyer

B

7-7 4.43 ERA 113.2 IP 1.30 WHIP 66 K 35 BB

Projection: 14-12 4.30 ERA 214 IP 1.25 WHIP 110 K 65 BB

Souderton’s own has done exactly what the Phillies expected when they brought him in. He’s not going to strike guys out, and he’s not going to throw complete game shutouts. He’s going to go out, give you 6 innings, keep you in the game and be a decent pitcher. Moyer’s only had a few rough starts, and otherwise, he’s kept the Phillies in games. Guys like Cole Hamels can learn a lot from Jamie.

Adam Eaton

C

8-5 5.69 ERA 104.1 IP 1.50 WHIP 67 K 48 BB

Projection: 13-12 5.50 ERA 195 IP 1.45 WHIP 100 K 90 BB

A lot of people said he was overpaid to begin with, and his first half has done nothing to dispel that notion. I don’t know how the Phillies have won with him on the hill so much. In Spring Training, if you would’ve told me that he would’ve been one of three starters to make all of his starts, I would’ve called you crazy. I think his record is going to catch up to his actual performance, and he’s going to be a problem coming down the stretch.

Jon Lieber

D

3-6 4.73 ERA 78 IP 1.45 WHIP 54 K 22 BB

Projection: Out for season

Lieber started off the year on the DL, and then came off the DL in the bullpen, due to our, at the time, surplus of starters. That seems like a long time ago. He stunk in the bullpen, so the Phillies swapped Jon and Brett Myers. He had a couple nice starts, and then besides his game in KC, things went downhill from there. Everything culminated in a foot injury that’s keeping him out for the rest of the season. His Phillies career is over.

Freddy Garcia

F

1-5 5.90 ERA 58 IP 1.60 WHIP 50 K 19 BB

Projection: 4-6 5.40 ERA 1.45 WHIP 80 IP 70 K 25 BB

The Phillies big offseason acquisition proved to be the biggest bust in baseball. He was hurt in spring training, came back hurt and didn’t tell anyone, and Charlie Manuel finally got him to admit his shoulder was sore. Garcia is about to begin a throwing program on his way back, but it’s difficult to tell when he’s going to come back. I think he’ll give us 4-5 starts down the stretch and be just a little better than before.

Ryan Madson

B-

1-2 3.66 ERA 1 save 46.2 IP 1.31 WHIP 39 K 20 BB

Projection: 3-3 3.50 ERA 3 saves 88 IP 1.30 WHIP 70 K 37 BB

Madson is a mystery. He has three good pitches, but at times, wildness gets the best of him. Sometimes, he’ll walk guys at the least opportune times, and it hurts the team. Since the first series of the season, he hasn’t lost a game, so I guess that’s a positive. Otherwise, he’s been pretty reliable in middle relief, and he’s a durable guy that I’m glad we have in the pen.

Geoff Geary

D-

1-2 5.31 ERA 39 IP 1.51 WHIP 24 K 16 BB

Projection: 1-2 5.15 ERA 50 IP 1.45 WHIP 30 K 20 BB

Geoff just got worn out. Although his peripherals indicate his ERA probably should’ve been a bit higher last year, he was a reliable guy out of the pen. Early in the season, he did a great job with inherited runners, but Manuel went to the well a few too many times. He’s a pretty good pitcher, but the wear on his arm is a bit too much. Hopefully he can get straightened out and come back soon, because he can contribute.

Brett Myers

C

1-2 5.50 ERA 6 saves 36 IP 1.47 WHIP 51 K 18 BB

Projection: 2-2 5.10 ERA 21 saves 56 IP 1.35 WHIP 70 K 25 BB

After moving from the rotation to the bullpen, a move that’s still very controversial among fans, Myers was a great closer before he got hurt. Now, we’re waiting and waiting for him to start rehab and come back. It’s been pushed back several times, so the optimism of Myers returning and being effective is dwindling. If he’s back and healthy, he’s going to be a huge part of the pen down the stretch.

Antonio Alfonseca

B

3-1 3.93 ERA 6 saves 34.1 IP 1.66 WHIP 12 K 12 BB

Projection: 3-3 4.50 ERA 10 saves 60 IP 1.60 WHIP 20 K 18 BB

A couple things make Antonio hard to project. His peripherals don’t match his ERA at all. That’s a problem. He’s injured. That’s been affecting his performance. Finally, he’s not even supposed to be the closer. At any rate, he’s been one of our better pitchers, and hopefully he can continue to keep the screw ups to a minimum. His sinker is nice in CBP.

Kyle Kendrick

B-

3-0 4.40 ERA 30.2 IP 1.40 WHIP 10 K 10 BB

Projection: 7-5 4.50 ERA 100 IP 1.40 WHIP 40 K 25 BB

The Phillies have only lost one of Kendrick’s starts since making the jump from Reading. His moving fastball and breaking pitches make him a good fit for CBP. He gets into some tough jams with a lot of baserunners, but he doesn’t back down, and he finds a way out of trouble. He’s tough to project because he doesn’t have a great body of work so far, and if the Phillies trade for a starter and Garcia comes back, he’s the first to go.

Francisco Rosario

F

0-3 6.64 ERA 20.1 IP 1.97 WHIP 17 K 11 BB

Projection: Stats stay the same because I think his reign of terror is over.

Rosario was a reclamation project taken on by Pat Gillick very early in the season. He has an electric fastball that may or may not be close to the strike zone. He has no command of it and has even less command of his breaking ball, whatever it may be. He looked outstanding in some outings when guys couldn’t catch up to his fastball, but otherwise, he stunk. He’s on the DL where he should stay until next year.

Clay Condrey

F

3-0 7.36 ERA 18.1 IP 1.75 WHIP 12 K 8 BB

Projection: 3-0 7.30 ERA 20.1 IP 1.75 WHIP 13 K 9 BB

After being the luckiest man since Lou Gehrig last season, Condrey has been neither lucky nor good this year. He’s been up and down from Philly to Ottawa all year, and he’s cleared waivers every time. No one wants the guy. He allows too many runners and walks too many guys to be anything close to effective. He’s going to be a waste of a 40 man roster spot next year if he’s still around.

Mike Zagurski

C+

1-0 4.70 ERA 15.1 IP 1.37 WHIP 14 K 7 BB

Projection: 2-1 4.40 ERA 30 IP 1.35 WHIP 30 K 12 BB

He started off in Clearwater this year like everyone else, but he was a Thresher, not a Phillie. After a promotion and a cup of coffee at Reading, Zags was up in the bigs. This large, jolly character has been a solid addition to the bullpen, but sometimes he struggles with his command. If he cuts down on the walks, he’s going to be an effective major league reliever, who will hopefully be able to get righties out as well.

Yoel Hernandez

C-

0-0 5.02 ERA 14.1 IP 1.26 WHIP 13 K 1 BB

Projection: 1-0 4.65 ERA 20 IP 1.25 WHIP 18 K 3 BB

I wish all of our relievers would attended a Yo-el seminar on throwing strikes, but unfortunately, he was hit around a couple times and finds himself back at Ottawa. I expect to see him back at some point this year because his command really was pretty good when he was here, even if he was pitching over his head a little. He’ll probably be back in September.

Jose Mesa

D-

0-1 4.73 ERA 13.1 IP 1.28 WHIP 4 K 6 BB

Projection: 0-2, 4.65 18 IP 1.30 WHIP 6 K 7 BB

All fans need to bite the bullet and admit he hasn’t been that bad since we got him. He walks too many guys, but he doesn’t give up hits, and he might even be a bit unlucky this year. I still think he’ll be one of the first to go when push comes to shove, and we won’t have to deal with him much longer. I still can’t believe we brought him back. We’re that desperate.

Brian Sanches

D-

1-1 4.22 ERA 10.2 IP 1.31 WHIP 5 K 9 BB

Projection: 1-1 4.20 ERA 15 IP 1.30 WHIP 6 K 11 BB

I can’t imagine this guy gets that many more innings this year. It’s just not possible. He walks way too many guys, and you just can’t have that from a relief pitcher. Every outing is an audition for the role of Casey Fossum in some sick Broadway musical about the Rays. His K rate isn’t good at all. I can’t believe he was a former second round pick. It’s unfathomable.

Tom Gordon

F

1-1 4.82 ERA 5 saves 9.1 IP 1.71 WHIP 11 K 4 BB

Projection: 2-2 4.50 ERA 30 IP 1.50 WHIP 35 K 15 BB

It was a bad contract to begin with, and Gordon has really struggled since the All-Star game last year. His fastball has lost velocity and his curveball has no break. He’s not healthy, and the Phillies really hurt the team by allowing him to pitch in April and not letting him get healthy. Hopefully he can come back and contribute, but I have my doubts.

J.D. Durbin

F

0-2 7.56 ERA 8.1 IP 1.92 WHIP 8 K 5 BB

Projection: 0-2 7.50 ERA 10 IP 1.90 WHIP 9 K 6 BB

Here’s some more shit that won’t stick. He was bad in his start after he lost confidence in his curveball, which was actually being thrown for strikes. He lost command of everything, walked guys and he just hasn’t been very effective. I see the potential, but until he can reach it, he has to get his confidence back in the minors. I just don’t know if we can get him through waivers.

Zack Segovia

D-

0-1 9.00 ERA 5 IP 1.80 WHIP 2 K 1 BB

Projection: We won’t see him again this year, for the good of the Phillies and his future.

It’s been a while since we’ve seen him, but you may wonder why I didn’t give him an F. Just refer back to a column way back in April, and you’ll get my thoughts on that game. Segovia has bombed in the minors since then. His already alarming K rates were down even more, and he’s walking guys. He’s back at Reading now, where hopefully he can get his career moving on the right path.

J.A. Happ

F

0-1 11.25 ERA 4 IP 2.25 WHIP 5 K 2 BB

Projection: 1-2 5.50 ERA 20 IP 2.00 WHIP 18 K 6 BB

He had an awful ML debut against the Mets, and he was sent back to Ottawa when we didn’t need him any longer. Next week, we will need him until we acquire another starter. He’s going to be a decent pitcher eventually, but he could use a little more seasoning. His sinker is going to be a good asset at CBP, if he’s not traded before he can settle in here.

Matt Smith

F

0-0 11.25 ERA 4 IP 3.75 WHIP 1 K 11 BB

Projection: Surgery.

After a solid month in which he got some key outs in key situations last year, Smith sucked in his brief stint this season. His pitches were all over the place and his walks were obviously very frequent. After doing poorly in the minors as well, it was discovered that he had elbow problems, and TJ surgery was imminent. He’ll wind up taking next year off, and maybe he can contribute in 09.

Fabio Castro

F

0-0 12.27 ERA 3.2 IP 2.46 WHIP 5 K 5 BB

Projection: 0-0 12.00 ERA 5 IP 2.30 WHIP 6 K 5 BB

The young lefty who sat at the end of the pen for much of last year didn’t make the cut when the team came up north. After Matt Smith failed, he joined the team and picked up where Smith left off. He allowed too many runners and too many runs to score. He has pretty good stuff, but he’s still really young and needs some refinement. He could be a decent pitcher in the future.

J.C. Romero

B-

0-0 0.00 ERA 3 IP 1.67 WHIP 4 K 3 BB

Projection: 1-1 3.50 ERA 25 IP 1.50 WHIP 20 K 12 BB

Romero was a scrap heap pick up from the Red Sox. He had a good ERA in Boston, but he had a problem with walking guys and allowing base runners in general. With Mike Timlin coming off the DL and Boston having a deep bullpen in general, Romero was expendable. He’s been okay so far. He’s again allowing runners, but as long as they don’t come around to score, he’s as good as it gets in our bullpen.

Joe Bisenius

C

0-0 0.00 ERA 2 IP 2.00 WHIP 3 K 2 BB

Projection: 0-0 0.00 ERA 4 IP 1.50 WHIP 4 K 2 BB

He was on the roster until one of our pitchers got back, and he pitched two innings without messing up. That’s all we could ask for. He pitched well during the spring, and he was a candidate to earn a spot on the roster right out of Spring Training, but he didn’t. He got hurt and struggled a bit in the minors, but when September call ups roll around, he should get another shot.

Anderson Garcia

F

0-0 13.50 ERA .2 IP 3.00 WHIP 0 K 0 BB

Projection: Same numbers.

I don’t think we’ll see much of this conspicuous character. He’s a retread from some other organizations, and he isn’t good. We brought him in to stop the bleeding, and he only caused more of it. He’s not a very good pitcher, and hopefully he doesn’t even give us innings in September. The Phillies are in the race. We can’t afford to be running out Anderson Garcia’s.

There you have it. The first, and hopefully second half Phillies. There’s potential to make the playoffs there. We have the roll and the meat, we just need to bring in the cheese from somewhere to complete our proverbial cheese steak. Yeah, I went there.