Friday, July 20, 2007

Allocation of Resources

If you’re a Yankees or Red Sox fan, this won’t really apply to your teams. For a large majority of the rest of Major League Baseball, it does. The reality is most teams are on a budget. Whether it’s justified or not, a lot of owners have a self imposed salary cap that they do not like to spend over.

This puts General Managers in a tough position. They have to worry about re-signing their own guys, bringing in free agents to help the club, and all of those guys have to be signed to economical contracts. Making trades to put your team over the top can be tough if the team is right up against the budget.

Building a strong farm system is key for teams in this situation. If you can always have a good prospect to bring up to fill a hole, you get inexpensive talent. This allows you to spend your money on a position of need. Having prospects can also allow a team to make trades and not have to break the bank to make a splash in free agency. This is where the Phillies fail.

They actually have a number of problems. First, as mentioned above, the Phillies might as well not have minor league affiliates. Carlos Carrasco is our best prospect, so you can’t trade him. Other than him, there’s nothing left in the upper levels of the organization. Our prospects are all still in the low minor league levels, which means they have no trade value.

The ownership group is also handcuffing Pat Gillick and keeping the Phillies back. There’s no flexibility for Gillick to go out and improve the team, so he has to do what he can. That puts him in a bad position, but he’s not free of criticism.

The Phillies don’t like to spend any more than about 90-95 million dollars. A few years ago, that’s one of the top payrolls in baseball. However, with increasing player salaries, it’s barely in the upper third of the league now. For a team that can’t seem to figure out how to scout and develop talent, you have to start spending more than that to field a winner.

Gillick isn’t free from criticism though. Let’s take a look at the players the Phillies have under contract and compare their salaries to what they’re producing. I’m going to throw out arbitration eligible and all guys under the Phillies’ control because they have set salaries. Contract information is courtesy of www.mlb4u.com

RP Antonio Alfonseca- 1 year contract worth $700k with up to $800k more available in bonuses: Gillick took a flier on Antonio, and he made the roster out of spring training. His peripherals aren’t the greatest, but he’s been pretty reliable, and he’s done a great job filling in as the closer. He’s unlikely to collect more than half of the bonus money, so he’s still coming pretty cheap. I didn’t like the move at first, but Alfonseca is a bargain now.

C Rod Barajas- 2 year contract, worth $3 million in 2007, and either $5 million in 2008 or a $500k buyout: I hated it then, I hate it even more now. This is money not well spent. With Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste already in the organization, you have to take a chance with what you already have. Barajas adds nothing to the team, and the money spent on him could’ve been used elsewhere. There’s no reason to spend 3 million on a backup catcher.

LF Pat Burrell- 2 years remaining on his contract, worth $13 million in 2007 and $14 million in 2008, features a full no trade clause, more available in bonuses that he will never achieve : This obviously wasn’t Gillick’s signing, but Burrell’s contract is absolutely crippling. He’s owed 27 million over the next two seasons, making him the highest paid Phillie. This presents a problem because Burrell obviously isn’t the best player on the team. After his huge year in which he signed the contract, it didn’t look so bad. Unfortunately, sometimes bad things happen when you backload a contract and the player doesn’t work out. The Phillies may be able to unload Burrell the player, but his contract is unlikely to get off the books until after 2008.

SP Adam Eaton- 3 years remaining on his contract, worth $6.875 million in 2007, $7.635 million in 2008 and $8.5 million in 2009, with up to $500k more per year in bonuses, mutual team option in 2010 worth $9 million or $500k buyout: This was a bad, bad signing. It might be a bit of revisionist history because I kind of liked Eaton when we signed him, but looking back on it, the contract doesn’t make sense. There was no way Eaton could be any more than a 5th His career proves that, and his 2007 backs it up even more. There’s no reason to pay 8 million a year for a 5th starter, because there’s a dozen guys in the organization that would get paid the league minimum to give you the same thing Eaton does. starter.

SP Freddy Garcia- $10 million in 2007: Someone who only won one game is not worth 10 million. Garcia struggled with injuries since camp opened, and now he’s trying to get off the DL after taking a couple months off. The big offseason acquisition turned out to be a huge bust, and it’s part of the reason the Phillies are struggling. Garcia was a huge reason for the optimism coming into the year. When the guy you bring in to solidify the rotation goes down and does nothing, it’s a huge blow.

RP Tom Gordon- $7 million in 2007, $5.5 million in 2008, team option in 2009 worth $4.5 million or $1 million buyout: Another ugly signing. The Phillies definitely needed a closer after Billy Wagner walked, but it would’ve been nice if they could’ve done better. Gordon is an old, injury risk and for three years, it’s a contract that didn’t have a high chance of looking successful. He’s missed just about the entire 2007 season, and with his injury apparently being a torn labrum, no one is hopeful for a strong finish to the year, even though he’s off the DL.

3B Wes Helms- $2.05 million in 2007, $2.15 million in 2008, team option in 2009 worth $3.75 million or $750k buyout: Helms didn’t get a huge contract, but it’s still money that could’ve gone to some bullpen help. He’s traditionally a second half player, so there’s still hope that he picks it up down the stretch. He didn’t handle the transition from going to utility player to full time starter well, and now he’s been relegated to pinch hitting and spot starts. It never seems like the Phillies can land a decent third bagger, and Helms is just more wasted money at the position.

SP Jon Lieber- $7.5 million in 2007: It’s too bad he got hurt and wasn’t pitching effectively. Usually he can give you some decent innings, especially in the second half. At 7.5 million, he’s almost a cheap, experienced back end guy. Unfortunately, getting paid 7.5 million to get surgery isn’t a very good investment. It would’ve been nice if the Phillies could’ve traded him while they had the chance, and now they can just hope that he’s a type A free agent this offseason.

RP Jose Mesa- I’m assuming he’s playing for the minimum: Because nothing else would make sense. If this guy is getting paid any more than the minimum, it’s money that should not be spent. He actually hasn’t been as frightfully bad as a lot of fans would have you believe, but he’s still not very good. It’s a slap in the face to the fans that he was brought back. Not that you can let fans make your decisions, but bringing back Mesa was unfathomable when he left the Phillies.

SP Jamie Moyer- $6 million in 2007, $3.5 million in 2008, with bonuses based on IP: Pretty nice price for an experienced veteran who’s not only a decent pitcher on the mound, but he’s a great mentor as well. Moyer’s struggled as of late, and that’s actually raised questions about whether or not he’ll retire. Even if he’s not very effective, at a price tag of 3 million, you’re getting great value at the back end of the rotation. If he does decide to hang em up, hopefully the Phillies can get him to hang on as a coach.

P Brett Myers- $5 million in 2007, $8.5 million in 2008, $12 million in 2009 with some performance bonuses: I can go two ways with this deal. I have no problems with Brett Myers the pitcher, but this contract sucks if he’s in the bullpen. It’s way too much money. In his final year, barring huge free agent signings, he’ll have the highest single year salary of any reliever of all time. Myers is a good pitcher, but he’s not worth that kind of money. As a starter, you’re getting a top of the rotation guy for a pretty decent price. He has to be back in the rotation.

IF Abraham Nunez- $2.1 million in 2007, team option in 2008: For 2.1 million, you’d like more than a utility infielder who can’t hit. His glove is nice to have in late inning situations and when we have ground ball pitchers on the mound, but his bat is a liability that we can’t have in the lineup very often. We signed him after a contract year in which he filled up admirably for Scott Rolen, but he’s just not a very good player. Someone like Jason Donald could fill in his role next season, and he’s cheaper and probably has a better bat.

SS Jimmy Rollins- $7 million in 2007, $7 million in 2008, $7.5 million in 2009, $7.5 million in 2010, team option in 2011 worth $8.5 million or $2 million buyout: This looked like a bad extension when Wade inked him to it a few years ago, but right now, it’s looking great. Rollins is a great player who almost has about 4.5 tools. He’s signed to a cheap contract, especially considering the deal Michael Young signed last year. Rollins is a part of the core of this team, and his price makes him even better.

RP J.C. Romero- Minor league contract: This is a bargain for someone like Romero. He’s not as good as he once was, but he’s as good as we can get in the bullpen. He allows a lot of baserunners, but he always seems to get out of jams. He’s pretty effective against lefties, and Manuel is getting confidence in him against righties as well. He could be a part of this pen for a few years if we choose to bring him back.

2B Chase Utley- $4.5 million in 2007, $7.5 million in 2008, $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $15 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012, $15 million in 2013, has the most ridiculous no trade clause I’ve ever seen: It’s ridiculously back loaded, and if Utley falls off towards the end, it’s going to be another Burrell situation, but I don’t think we’ll have that problem. Utley’s a more consistent hitter and doesn’t seem like he’ll have a career where he falls off a cliff. For one of the best hitters in baseball, it’s almost a discount, and hopefully the Phillies can become contenders before that salary jumps up to 15 a year.

OF Jayson Werth- can earn up to $800k: He’s pretty meh. As a utility player, he has a decent glove at the corner outfield positions and he’s an okay pinch hitter. He’s not getting paid much at all, so that’s a plus. His wrist injury is bothering him again, so he’s going to be on the DL a bit, but hopefully he can come back and contribute.

So there’s a huge chunk of the payroll. Let’s take a look at a few things.

- $20.375 million on 4-5 starters (why do we have three of these guys?) 21% of the payroll

- $12 million on the last two innings of the bullpen, 13% of the payroll

- $3 million on Rod Barajas, 3% of the payroll

- $30.3 million on players that have been on the DL, 32% of the payroll

It looks like some better decisions are going to have to be made to get this team moving in the right direction.

No comments: